Flutterby™! : how to lie

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how to lie

2006-05-11 21:05:38.990263+00 by Dan Lyke 2 comments

So the local high school board has come back with yet another bond issue. I'm always unsure on such things, you'd think a school in a wealthy area that's been around for a gazillion years would be able to pay forward rather than borrowing, but maybe there are issues of accounting shenanigans when such things occur. On the other hand, we're told that:

High school modernization will cost taxpayers LESS than projected in 2001 — even with the proposed new $80 million bond!


  • The initial bond, passed by over two-thirds of voters in 2001, projected an average annual cost of $32.80 per $100,000 of assessed home valuation.
  • The current projection for the 2001 bond is actually 37% lower at $20.43 per $100,000
  • The projected average annual cost of both the 2001 and 2006 bonds together is $29.44 per $100,000 — STILL 10% LOWER than projected in 2001

For those of you having trouble following along at home, we're in the midst of a housing bubble. I'm having trouble finding hard real estate data for the full period, but let's conservatively say that housing prices have risen, say, 11% a year. That means, in fact , that the projected average annual cost of both bonds together is, in fact, half again the cost of the initial bond.

Hopefully the people writing these flyers aren't also the people teaching math.

On another note: At the aforementioned coworker's place yesterday, we were talking about real estate, and while his place is probably worth about a million on the open market, the next door condo rents for $2.2k/month. Figure that out.

[ related topics: Children and growing up Bay Area Mathematics California Culture Economics Real Estate ]

comments in ascending chronological order (reverse):

#Comment Re: made: 2006-05-12 00:00:26.967315+00 by: ebradway

We just leased a condo outside Boulder for $875/mo - including heat and water. The owner was trying to sell it for $179K. The HOA fees are $180/mo (plus heat and water). Our rent is equal to a mortgage if we paid less than $100K for it and we don't have to deal with paying for things that break...

#Comment Re: made: 2006-05-12 12:22:27.60167+00 by: meuon

They are teaching the math, and know exactly what they are doing. They know most people can't evaluate it the way you just did.