COVID-19 end-game
2020-04-14 21:29:13.868776+02 by Dan Lyke 0 comments
Science Early Report: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period Stephen M. Kissler, Christine Tedijanto, Edward Goldstein, Yonatan H. Grad, Marc Lipsitch. Science 14 Apr 2020: eabb5793 DOI: 10.1126/science.abb5793
Abstract It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-immunity for betacoronaviruses OC43 and HKU1 from time series data from the USA to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. ...
Bloomberg: Harvard Researchers Say Some Social Distancing May Be Needed Into 2022