Foxes & Hedgehogs
2021-06-14 17:28:10.554717+02 by Dan Lyke 0 comments
Don’t Feed the Thought Leaders:
It turns out that Philip E. Tetlock from the University of Pennsylvania, who has been studying the judgment and decision making of experts for most of his career, has something to say about those types of predictions. And Tetlock is an expert on experts: his Good Judgement Project was able to beat CIA analysts by 30% at predicting geo-political events. And the intelligence officers had access to classified information.
Philip Tetlock: Why foxes are better forecasters than hedgehogs
It’s a matter of judgement style, first expressed by the ancient Greek warrior poet Archilochus: “The fox knows many things; the hedgehog one great thing.” The idea was later expanded by essayist Isaiah Berlin. In Tetlock’s interpretation, Hedgehogs have one grand theory (Marxist, Libertarian, whatever) which they are happy to extend into many domains, relishing its parsimony, and expressing their views with great confidence. Foxes, on the other hand are skeptical about grand theories, diffident in their forecasts, and ready to adjust their ideas based on actual events.