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Housing supply & politics

2022-01-22 16:25:08.050896+01 by Dan Lyke 7 comments

Political Geography: The effects of housing supply restrictions on partisan geography

Abstract Economists have scrutinized the effects of residential building restrictions on the cost of housing, growth, and migration in recent years. More strictly zoned states and metro areas have lost population to less strictly zoned areas in the United States, but have seen per capita incomes rise, because lower-income households are disproportionately likely to seek out locations with affordable housing. By changing the geographic distribution of population, housing supply restrictions should also affect political geography. This paper estimates those effects with a variety of methods and data. There are consistently sized, statistically significant effects at the state, county, and subcounty levels. Jurisdictions with greater housing supply restriction gradually and subsequently become more Democratic; there is no evidence that Democratic-moving areas subsequently become more regulated or costly. U.S. housing supply restrictions select for education. Areas with more costly housing see their college-educated share of the population rise, and the college-educated have become more Democratic than the non-college population.


[ related topics: Politics moron Education Maps and Mapping Economics Real Estate Model Building ]

comments in ascending chronological order (reverse):

#Comment Re: Housing supply & politics made: 2022-01-23 17:03:47.739371+01 by: TheSHAD0W

Now that I think about it. section 8 residents who are moved into better neighborhoods wind up gerrymandered out in local representation, which may cause them some issues.

#Comment Re: Housing supply & politics made: 2022-01-25 01:48:29.339943+01 by: Dan Lyke

Yeah. Petaluma just got sued under the California Voting Rights Act and needs to move to district elections, and in trying to come up with reasonable districts, it's amazing how trying to make sure that the Latinx community gets representation starts to look really really gerrymanderish.

And I also realized that even though my gut response to the "I'm an 8th generation Petaluman, so my opinion should matter more" is "did your family sell me my house, or not?", that what they're really complaining about is gentrification.... And I'm a gentrifier.

#Comment Re: Housing supply & politics made: 2022-01-26 02:07:18.895782+01 by: TheSHAD0W

I still don't understand why people have problems with gentrification. At least, unless you're talking about the tax load, which is more part of big government than neighborhoods improving. How can you complain about the value of your property going up, and having the option of having a nicer place to live or more money if you decide to go elsewhere?

#Comment Re: Housing supply & politics made: 2022-01-26 19:14:49.260532+01 by: Dan Lyke

In poorer neighborhoods, especially with multi-family buildings, I'd guess that the major driver is that most of the residents are renters, and moving means they'd lose their community.

In richer areas (like mine), I think it's a general social conservatism and desire to keep the community as it used to be.

In both cases the driver is that thing that always trips up economics: social connections.

#Comment Re: Housing supply & politics made: 2022-02-01 16:50:51.50654+01 by: Dan Lyke

Thought about this more: Also, gentrification means your kids can't afford to buy into the community. So it breaks up generational community.

#Comment Re: Housing supply & politics made: 2022-02-02 13:48:27.602309+01 by: TheSHAD0W

Unless the community has infinite expansion capability, you'll always have problems with kids buying into a community because someone else would have to move out to make room.

#Comment Re: Housing supply & politics made: 2022-02-04 19:02:50.345136+01 by: Dan Lyke

Yep. In Petaluma politics, we have a lot of the children of long-time resident families saying things like "My family has lived here for mumbledy gazillion decades, I don't know why these newcomers should get to improve the town, I like it the way it was 40 years ago".

And a lot of people bemoaning "the tech dollars that are driving up housing costs".

So, yeah, I'm a gentrifier.

And if their want to keep the place like it was 40 years ago, stop fighting against urban growth boundaries because their family wants to cash out the family farm for more sprawl, and their family shouldn't have sold out and then pushed the town into some extremely stupid transportation and land use decisions 30 years ago.

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