Flutterby™! : 164 economists don't agree

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164 economists don't agree

2022-02-07 16:56:17.888454+01 by Dan Lyke 0 comments

Kellogg Insight: If you handed the same data to 164 teams of economists and asked them to answer the same questions, would they reach a consensus? Or would they offer 164 different answers?

I wasn't sure I was gonna link this one, because it's kinda nuanced and deep, but then I saw the "Suggested Citation" and had to... SSRN: Non-Standard Errors

Abstract In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: non-standard errors. To study them, we let 164 teams test six hypotheses on the same sample. We find that non-standard errors are sizeable, on par with standard errors. Their size (i) co-varies only weakly with team merits, reproducibility, or peer rating, (ii) declines significantly after peer-feedback, and (iii) is underestimated by participants.

https://ssrn.com/abstract=3961574 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3961574

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